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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.