🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."